1/3 probability of recession in the next six months...?

 What Can We Learn from These Models?

One possible way to summarize the results from all these models is to calculate the average of these probabilities and then examine historical performance of the average probability. The current average probability is 37.3 percent and this method predicted all recessions successfully since 1980 without producing any false positives (Figure 11). Different models utilize different predictors to capture the state of different sectors of the economy and therefore an average probability may reflect the average risk posed by these sectors.

At present, we are not calling for a recession within the next six months. However, given that the recession probabilities based on our official model and average of all models are somewhat elevated, it is not wise to dismiss recession risk. We will closely monitor the upcoming data in the coming weeks and months to assess where the U.S. economy is headed—stay alert!

1/3 probability of recession in the next six months...?

According to Wells Fargo--

who talk as if they know--

and, of course,  it is their profession--

we now  have only  a 1/3 chance of recession.

But before this gives us  too much cheer

they also suggest we tune in again later this  year. 

since any economist worth his salt

would wish  to   avoid defeat or  default.

...

Yet, you can still  bet. 

on   recession blues.

and that whatever we   invest in,  we could  lose---

which might even include  some  hair---

because this  market snarls and  growls like   a  Bear.

HzL

2/24/16

US Manufacturing Slowdown Does Not Signal a Recession

https://www.wellsfargo.com/.../gmsr-us-manufacturing-slow...

Wells Fargo

U.S. Manufacturing Slowdown Does Not Signal a Recession. Wells Fargo Investment Institute - February 2, 2016. Print. Share. FacebookTwitter. Beginning of ...

Wells Fargo CFO: No Signs of Recession Yet - Bloomberg ...

www.bloomberg.com/.../wells-fargo-cfo-no-signs-of-rec...

Bloomberg L.P.

Jan 15, 2016 - John Shrewsberry, Wells Fargo's chief financial officer, discusses the selloff in equities and the state of the U.S. economy with Bloomberg's ...