viceorverse

Saturday, April 4, 2015

A Benjamin's take on Iran's nuclear statistics

Somebody once said:

"There's lies, and damn lies and, then statistics".

----------------------------------------------------------------

Lies, damned lies, and statistics - Wikipedia, the free ...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

Wikipedia

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of ...(1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I thought that such an expression had been bred

in the brain

of Mark Twain,

but he himself ascribed it to Benjamin Disraeli, instead..

But in any case , it has arisen in many another place,

which includes ,as has been recently obviously true,

the mind and mouth of another Benjamin, Mr. Netanyahu.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Israeli Response to Iran Nuclear Deal Could Have Broader Implications

New York Times‎ - 14 hours ago

... now in a powerful position to undermine the Iran nuclear deal, his counterpart's signature ...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For, even if we believe a frequent statisticians song

that a 5 percent chance , or one in twenty,

of insurance against things going wrong,.

is usually considered to be plenty,

would that that still be true,

might well ask Mr. Netanyahu,

when such a significance error

could lead to unimaginable terror?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical significance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

Wikipedia

In statistics, statistical significance (or a statistically significant result) is .... with p-values (in cases where the effect being tested for is defined in terms of an effect ...

‎History - ‎Role in statistical hypothesis ... - ‎Defining significance in terms ...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Besides, to make things worse,
and what's really keeping him up at night.
he feels the odds are really the reverse,
with only about a one in twenty chance of things going right--
His repose is not helped by the stretchy oratorical pajamas
now being offered by his 'friends' , the Kerrys and Obamas,
especially since the 'deal", when translated from its English version,
sounds quite different , and more menacing, when put in Persian.
HZL
4/4/15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iran Nuclear Deal: How Both Sides Are Selling It to Their People

NBCNews.com‎ - 18 hours ago

The United States and Iran had vastly different objectives in their nuclear talks. ... and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif areseen by many as national heroes for negotiating a deal ...

Friday, April 3, 2015

Obama begins hard work of selling Iran deal

Karen DeYoung

With a “framework” in place to curb Iran’s nuclear power, attention now turns to the next phase — convincing adversaries in Congress and skeptical Mideast allies.

THE USED CAR DEALER

There is an ace used car dealer

who poses as a faith healer

and also an expert at Yoga--

all while wearing a toga.

His mouth can work fluently

while standing on his head incongruently,

but even he shouldn't sell

this complicated piece of metal.

Though he claims, underneath, it's a trusty Rolls Royce

for which the buyer will later rejoice,

even though, somehow, it got twisted like a pretzel,

it's really an ancient, and very dangerously rusted, Edsel.

HZL

4/3/15

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Obama takes risky gamble with Iran talks

Prosecutor denies reports of cell phone video from inside Germanwings crash plane

CNN‎ - 23 hours ago

A French prosecutor dismissed reports of video from theGermanwings plane that crashed.

Lufthansa Faces Mounting Challenges as More Details of Germanwings Crash Emerge

New York Times‎ - 20 hours ago

Germanwings crash pilot Andreas Lubitz 'lied to doctors about flying and was prescribed powerful drugs'

Telegraph.co.uk‎ - 4 hours ago

Subject: Obama takes risky gamble with Iran talks
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2015 10:21:09 -0400

WHEN YOUR FATE

IS IN ANOTHER'S HANDS

IT IS SOMETIMES TOO LATE

TO PREVENT HOW THE PLANE LANDS.

THIS LESSON LEARNED TO SUCH DREADFUL COST

CAN APPLY TO NATIONS, TOO,

WHEN A LEADER IS MISGUIDED AND LOST

BUT REFUSES TO CHANGE HIS POINT OF VIEW.

WITH MUCH ORATORY BUT LACKING IN TOUGH NEGOTIATING SKILL,

IT MAY ULTIMATELY BE MANY OF US THAT HE COULD KILL.

HZL

4/2/15

From: hzlehrer@hotmail.com
To: hzlehrer@hotmail.com
Subject: Obama takes risky gamble with Iran talks
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2015 10:06:45 -0400

Obama takes risky gamble with Iran talks

Greg Jaffe

He kept negotiations moving despite second-guessing from Democrats and foreign allies.

Talks may be nearing last-ditch stage

Obama Weighs Options if Iran Nuclear Talks Fail

Wall Street Journal‎ - 14 hours ago

That deal would curb Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. .... “They do not want to walk away lightly, but will in the end want to use perhaps ...

President Obama Must Not Complete a Disastrous Deal With Iran

New York Observer‎ - 2 days ago

Talks for framework of Iran nuclear deal continue

CNN‎ - 2 days ago

More news for WHY OBAMA WANTS IRAN DEAL

President Obama Must Not Complete a Disastrous Deal ...

observer.com/.../president-obama-must-not-com...

The New York Observer

2 days ago - For Mr. Obama, the Iranian nuclear arms deal is about his place in .....toilet of religious zealots who think God wants millions killed in his name.

Iran Nuclear Deal: Does Obama want Israel to commit ...

www.foxnews.com/.../iran-nuclear-deal-does-obama-...

Fox News Channel

Mar 24, 2015 - President Obama has traded history, facts and reality for a potential dealwith Iran. The deal would be struck with a regime that promotes ..

Birthdays

I wrote this in honor of my (younger) brother. His birthday is April 6, but at my age, you don't wait 3 days, either to eat a banana or write a verse. HZL

image: http://www.brainyquote.com/photos/s/satchelpaige103901.jpg

How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are?

Satchel Paige

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/s/satchelpai103901.html#1MLALHUsEDwdAFzT.99

How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are?

Birthdays:

According to a noted sage,

whose name was Satchel Paige--

and he could pitch very well too--

A Birthday isn't simply a matter of age

but of what you still can or can't do--

like falling in love or writing a thoughtful page.

So,instead of counting years

let's just hold close to our Dears,

while trying hard to ignore life's pains--

and not worry about being too old for a bagel with smears,

or complicated games that tax our brains,

and, instead, put away all life's fears.

After all, despite what anyone might say,

it's really just another Day,

which marks a certain point in our earth's orbit

and with any luck, many? more may still come our way

as, hopefully, our circumstances will permit.

So, Let's All Go Out and Play!

HZL

4/2/14

California governor orders mandatory water restrictions

How long ago was the Dust Bowl
with Okies forced to the West,

no longer able to withstand the toll

and seeking a land more blessed?

But California's now different altogether,

too long lacking snow and and rainy weather;

with its many billions in farming

threatened by global warming.

In Sacramento town

all this must have been foreseen,

for the Governor's last name isn't Green.

In fact, he's Very Brown.

HZL

4/2/15

page took 2.45 seconds

• home | my page | my email

AP • New York Times • USA TODAY • FOX News

California governor orders mandatory water restrictions

Apr 1, 9:25 PM (ET)
By FENIT NIRAPPIL

(AP) Frank Gehrke, left, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the...
Full Image

Google sponsored links

Concealed Carry Guide - Do You Know Your Rights? Get Your Free Concealed Carry Guide Today!
usconcealedcarry.net

Cheap High Speed Internet -High Speed Internet - Top 10 Deals March 2015 Hot Offers!
2014prices.com/High-Speed-In

ECHO LAKE, Calif. (AP) — California Gov. Jerry Brown ordered officials Wednesday to impose statewide mandatory water restrictions for the first time in history as surveyors found the lowest snow level in the Sierra Nevada snowpack in 65 years of record-keeping.

Standing in dry, brown grass at a site that normally would be snow-covered this time of year, Brown announced he had signed an executive order requiring the State Water Resources Control Board to implement measures in cities and towns to cut the state's overall water usage by 25 percent compared with 2013 levels.

The move will affect residents, businesses, farmers and other users.

"We're in a historic drought and that demands unprecedented action," Brown said at a news conference at Echo Summit in the Sierra Nevada, where state water officials found no snow on the ground for the first time in their April manual survey of the snowpack. "We have to pull together and save water in every way we can."

(AP) In this April 1, 2014 file photo, Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for...
Full Image

After declaring a drought emergency in January 2014, Brown urged all Californians to cut water use by 20 percent from the previous year.

Despite increasingly stringent regulations imposed on local water agencies by the state, overall water use has fallen by just half that amount, prompting Brown to order the stronger action by the water board.

"We're in a new era; the idea of your nice little green grass getting water every day, that's going to be a thing of the past," Brown said.

Brown asked for a 25 percent cut in water use in 1977 during his first term as governor. Since then, cities have developed local storage and supplies to soften the blow of future dry years, making it harder to get residents to cut back in the current drought.

For many Californians, water still flows from taps without any extra hit to their wallets.

(AP) Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the...
Full Image

The order issued Wednesday will require campuses, golf courses, cemeteries and other large landscapes to significantly cut water use; direct local governments to replace 50 million square feet of lawns with drought-tolerant landscaping; and create a temporary rebate program for consumers who replace old water-sucking appliances with more efficient ones.

Outside an office building in Tustin, Gary Whitlock questioned whether Brown's order would make a difference.

"You know, this has been going on for years and everybody that I talk to says, 'Oh, well, you know, it's going to rain, El Nino's coming,'" Whitlock said as he watched sprinklers run and a gardener washing the underside of a lawnmower with a gushing hose.

The order calls on local water agencies to implement tiered water pricing that charges higher rates as more water is used and requires agricultural users to report more water use information to state regulators.

Brown's office said that will boost the state's ability to enforce laws against illegal water diversions and waste. Officials previously approved fines of up to $500 a day for water wasters, but few agencies have opted to issue them.

(AP) Frank Gehrke, left, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the...
Full Image

The order also prohibits new homes and developments from using drinkable water for irrigation if the structures lack water-efficient drip systems. In addition, the watering of decorative grasses on public street medians is banned.

The snow survey on Wednesday showed the statewide snowpack is equivalent to just 5 percent of the historical average for April 1 and the lowest for that date since the state began record-keeping in 1950.

Snow supplies about a third of the state's water, and a lower snowpack means less water in California reservoirs to meet demand in summer and fall.

"It is such an unprecedented lack of snow, it is way, way below records," Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, said at the snow survey site about 90 miles east of Sacramento.

Critics of the Democratic governor said his order does not go far enough to address agriculture — the biggest water user in California.

"In the midst of a severe drought, the governor continues to allow corporate farms and oil interests to deplete and pollute our precious groundwater resources that are crucial for saving water," Adam Scow, California director of the group Food & Water Watch, said in a written statement.

The order contains no water reduction target for farmers, who have let thousands of acres go fallow as the state and federal government slashed water deliveries from reservoirs. Instead, it requires many agricultural water suppliers to submit detailed drought management plans that include how much water they have and what they're doing to scale back.

Dave Kranz, a spokesman for the California Farm Bureau Federation, said farmers have already suffered deep cutbacks in water supply during the current drought.

---

Associated Press writers Juliet Williams in Sacramento, California, and Gillian Flaccus in Tustin, California, contributed to this report.